Making sense of the markets this week: May 26, 2024
Canadian inflation cools, Nvidia continues to dominate, and U.S. retailers say that consumers are tapped out.
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Canadian inflation cools, Nvidia continues to dominate, and U.S. retailers say that consumers are tapped out.
Kyle Prevost, creator of 4 Steps to a Worry-Free Retirement, Canada’s DIY retirement planning course, shares financial headlines and offers context for Canadian investors.
Believe it or not, the prices of the groceries in your shopping cart haven’t gone up much since last year.
Prices went up a lot in the preceding three years, and although they’re not coming back down, at least they’re not rising as quickly.
Statistics Canada released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers on Tuesday. April’s year-over-year increase of 2.7% is the lowest inflation reading since March 2021. Lower price increases for meat products were the main contributor to the mild 1.4% food price increase. Other grocery items with relatively low price increases were non-alcoholic beverages, bakery products and cereals. Fruits, nuts and seafood actually came down in price in April.
Some other takeaways from the CPI report include:
Overall, it appears that higher interest rates are really starting to bite, especially when you consider that monetary policy generally has a lag time of 12 to 18 months. The three-month inflation trend and non-housing inflation data strongly argue that the time to cut interest rates is quickly approaching.
Swap-rate markets are now pricing in a 53% chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates on June 5, and an 83% chance that a rate cut happens by July. The Canadian dollar finished the day 0.3% lower versus its American counterpart due to speculation that the Bank of Canada will have to cut rates ahead of the U.S. Fed.
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Nvidia continued its incredible momentum this week with another outsized earnings day. By continuing to sell the best picks and shovels of the AI gold rush, the company has realized stratospheric growth. All figures below are in U.S. dollars.
Nvidia (NVDA/NASDAQ): Earnings per share came in at $6.12 (versus $5.59 predicted), while revenues totalled $26.04 billion (versus $24.65 billion predicted).
Shares of Nvidia rose 7% in extended trading after the earnings announcement on Wednesday, and they topped $1,000 for the first time. Given the relatively steep price per share, it wasn’t a big surprise when the company announced that it is going to execute a 10-for-1 stock split.
A stock split divides existing shares into smaller pieces. So, if you previously had one share of Nvidia worth $1,000, you would now have 10 shares of Nvidia each worth $100, for an unchanged total value of $1,000. Stock splits are a way for companies to ensure that investors can easily buy and sell single shares.
Read “What is a stock split?” in the MoneySense glossary.
The massive hype behind Nvidia has resulted in a price-to-earnings ratio of over 55x. By comparison, tech giants Microsoft and Apple currently have ratios of 36x and 29x, respectively. Conventional logic says Nvidia’s growth has to fall back into line at some point—but this sustained period of record earnings is tough to argue with for the moment. Nvidia made 18% more money in Q1 2024 than it did in Q4 2023, and it made a whopping 262% more money than it did in Q1 2023.
To put this growth in perspective, Nvidia’s market capitalization has grown more than $1.1 trillion since Jan. 1, 2024. That’s bigger than the entire market capitalization of Canada’s 14 largest companies—and that’s just growth so far this year!
Founder and CEO Jensen Huang sounded appropriately upbeat in stating, “The next industrial revolution has begun—companies and countries are partnering with Nvidia … to produce a new commodity: artificial intelligence.”
Nvidia bought back $7.7 billion worth of its shares in Q1 and announced it was increasing its dividend from four cents to 10 cents per share (on a pre-split basis).
Frankly, I think it’s just a matter of time until competitors start to close the gap with Nvidia and some of those juicy profit margins start to shrink. That said, there is a whole lot of money to be made while that process plays out. Clearly, investors are willing to pay a premium for Nvidia’s future earnings.
Despite last week’s record good news for Walmart, the first quarter was not universally good for big American retailers. All figures below are in U.S. dollars.
Quarterly reports from three major retailers:
All three of these retail heavy hitters cited a stretched consumer as the main reason for mediocre quarterly earnings reports. Target CEO Brian Cornell explained that low sales numbers reflected “continued soft trends in discretionary categories.” Compared to its rival Walmart, Target has substantially fewer customers coming into its stores to buy groceries, so the consumer shift to necessities appears to be hitting it harder.
Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison had similar thoughts on the current retail scene, saying, “Interest rates can go down, but you still need consumer confidence to come up.” Macy’s CFO and COO Adrian Mitchell went so far as to say that its team expects consumers “will remain under pressure for the balance of the year.”
Shareholders have been lukewarm to companies in the retail sector not named Walmart. Over the last five business days, share prices for Lowe’s and Target are down 5% and 10%, respectively, while Macy’s shares were up slightly.
Investing legend Peter Lynch is generally credited with popularizing the phrase “buy what you know.”
I’ve always thought that buying what Peter Lynch knows is a much different concept than buying what I know.
The market has recently presented us with a few excellent cases of why average people probably shouldn’t limit their investments to “buy what you know.” A few years ago, no one had any idea what Nvidia was, but most were familiar with Red Lobster and pandemic darling Peloton.
Nvidia is up about 2,500% over the last five years, but the other two companies would need pretty strong rose-coloured glasses to ever see a profit again.
For those not following, Red Lobster has been in the news recently because it didn’t realize that offering unlimited shrimp was a bad idea. The iconic restaurant chain has struggled to get back to its pre-pandemic status, and it lost $76 million last year (with the “Ultimate Endless Shrimp” promotion costing the company $11 million). (All figures in U.S. dollars.) By filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, Red Lobster will be protected from creditors as it seeks to restructure itself and close down underperforming locations. The restaurant chain will stay open during the bankruptcy process.
Random fact: Red Lobster served 64 million customers last year, and it purchased 20% of all North American lobster tails.
Meanwhile, Peloton continued its decline and is now down more than 97% from its pandemic highs. CEO Barry McCarthy recently announced that he was stepping down, but first planned to lay off 15% of Peloton’s employees, because the company “simply had no other way to bring its spending in line with its revenue.”
While Peloton’s streaming workout service is fairly popular—it has more than three million subscribers—sales of its premium stationary bikes and treadmills continue to trend downward. Adjusted losses for the year are now estimated to be between $18.7 million and $30 million.
Maybe the Peloton executive team just needs a little pep talk from one of its spin class instructors:
If you’re looking for better advice than “buy what you know,” check out my take on Canada’s best long-term investments at MillionDollarJourney.com.
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