Bank of Canada lowers key interest rate by 0.5%

The Bank of Canada cut its key policy rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday to take it to 3.25%. Here is the text of the central bank’s decision:

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3.25 per cent, with the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent and the deposit rate at 3.25 per cent. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

The global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy continues to show broad-based strength, with robust consumption and a solid labour market. U.S. inflation has been holding steady, with some price pressures persisting. In the euro area, recent indicators point to weaker growth. In China, recent policy actions combined with strong exports are supporting growth, but household spending remains subdued. Global financial conditions have eased and the Canadian dollar has depreciated in the face of broad-based strength in the U.S. dollar.

In Canada, the economy grew by one per cent in the third quarter, somewhat below the Bank’s October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected. Third-quarter GDP growth was pulled down by business investment, inventories and exports. In contrast, consumer spending and housing activity both picked up, suggesting lower interest rates are beginning to boost household spending. Historical revisions to the National Accounts have increased the level of GDP over the past three years, largely reflecting higher investment and consumption. The unemployment rate rose to 6.8 per cent in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force. Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity.

A number of policy measures have been announced that will affect the outlook for near-term growth and inflation in Canada. Reductions in targeted immigration levels suggest GDP growth next year will be below the Bank’s October forecast. The effects on inflation will likely be more muted, given that lower immigration dampens both demand and supply. Other federal and provincial policies—including a temporary suspension of the GST on some consumer products, one-time payments to individuals, and changes to mortgage rules—will affect the dynamics of demand and inflation. The Bank will look through effects that are temporary and focus on underlying trends to guide its policy decisions.

In addition, the possibility the incoming U.S. administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook.

CPI inflation has been about two per cent since the summer, and is expected to average close to the two per cent target over the next couple of years. Since October, the upward pressure on inflation from shelter and the downward pressure from goods prices have both moderated as expected. Looking ahead, the GST holiday will temporarily lower inflation but that will be unwound once the GST break ends. Measures of core inflation will help us assess the trend in CPI inflation.

With inflation around two per cent, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 50 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the one-to-three per cent target range. Governing Council has reduced the policy rate substantially since June. Going forward, we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time. Our decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of the implications for the inflation outlook. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the two per cent target.