Where is bitcoin headed in 2025?

Bitcoin (BTC) investors have had a bumper 2024, with the oldest and largest cryptocurrency trading above $100,000 (all figures in U.S. dollars) for the first time ever—it’s up over 100% year-to-date (as of Dec. 19, 2024). 

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency based on market capitalization, hasn’t done too badly either—it’s up about 60% in 2024.

Here’s another staggering statistic: As the table below shows, the total crypto market cap more than doubled, from about $1.6 trillion in January 2024 to $3.31 trillion as of Dec. 19, 2024.

_{Source: Coinmarketcap.com}

If you remained invested in crypto through the crash of 2022-2023, you’re probably reaping rewards for sticking with it through tough times. Various factors contributed to these gains, of which the biggest and most recent is the re-election of Donald Trump—who now supports crypto—as the next president of the United States.

The crypto market had much going for it in 2024, but what does 2025 hold? Will bitcoin’s price remain above $100,000 in the new year? Is BTC now a bubble? Has crypto peaked for this market cycle? Will ethereum hit new all-time highs in 2025—or will it be knocked out of place by alternatives like solana?

How high (or low) will bitcoin go in 2025?

Bitcoin could keep rising in 2025 … or it could lose half its value. Nobody can predict the markets consistently with perfect accuracy. After all, if we could, investing would be risk-free. So, all predictions should be taken with more than just a pinch of salt. 

Having said that, if you’ve invested in crypto or are considering it, you probably want to know what the potential upside is. There’s no way to know for sure, but here’s what some well-known researchers and fund managers have to say about the future of crypto.

Among three respected crypto-positive experts—Cathie Wood (CEO of Ark Invest), Jurrien Timmer (director of global macro at Fidelity Investments) and Tom Lee (head of research at FundStrat)—the outlook on BTC remains bullish, with the expected corrections and crashes along the way, of course. Here’s what they have to say about the possible short-, medium- and long-term price of bitcoin.

• Tom Lee sees BTC at $250,000 by the end of 2025. Lee was right about BTC touching $100,000 in 2024.

• Cathie Wood sees BTC at $600,000 (base case) or $1.5 million (bull case) by 2030. Wood stated this in January 2024—when bitcoin was under $50,000 and the first U.S.-based spot BTC ETF had just been approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). She reiterated this view in mid-November 2024.

• Jurrien Timmer suggests BTC could reach $200,000 to $250,000 in the next five years or so. His valuation model assumes that bitcoin’s market cap will rise to at least a quarter of gold’s.

Factors that could positively (or negatively) affect bitcoin in 2025

Here’s what to watch for in the new year:

Liquidity in Canada and the U.S. 

Looser monetary policy (meaning lower interest rates) is positive for higher BTC prices. While Canada has already significantly cut interest rates, the more important cuts for bitcoin are those by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed started rate cuts in September 2024, with three cuts so far. The latest cut of 25 basis points was on Dec. 19, 2024. If U.S. rates fall further in 2025, the price of BTC could continue to rise. 

On the other hand, if inflationary pressures spike in 2025 and rate cuts are halted for a prolonged period—or if rate cuts are lower and slower than the market expects—then the BTC rally could take a breather. This is a real possibility. In its Dec. 19 announcement, the Fed took a more hawkish stance on rates than it had earlier in 2024—warning that inflation could rise again in 2025.

Trump presidency 

Donald Trump ran his presidential election campaign on a crypto-friendly platform. He spoke about enacting crypto-friendly regulation to grow the industry, rather than stifle it. This has been even more pronounced since he’s had pro-crypto Elon Musk at his side. So much so that the Department of Government Efficiency, a proposed advisory body to be led by Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, shortens to DOGE—a well-known memecoin that Musk has publicly supported for years.

While a Trump government may want to support crypto, it will no doubt have to address the rampant illegal activity and scams that plague the space. How they approach this will contribute to the health and the future trajectory of the crypto market. 

New SEC chair 

One of the world’s most important regulatory positions for crypto is that of SEC chairperson. Until January 2025, it’s Gary Gensler, who has been tough on alternative coins (a.k.a. altcoins, or all coins apart from bitcoin) because he sees them as securities, and therefore as being regulated under existing securities laws. While this approach, it could be argued, is good for investor protection, it has also stifled innovation in the crypto industry. 

Trump’s SEC chair nominee is Paul Atkins—a former SEC commissioner with a positive outlook on crypto. The growth of the crypto industry depends a great deal on Atkins’ regulatory approach to it.

However, it’s one thing to take a position from the sidelines, and a whole other thing to act on it once in power. It remains to be seen what Atkins’ crypto-friendly stance means in real terms. For example, will he roll back the ongoing lawsuits between the SEC and certain cryptocurrency founders? 

ETFs and institutional investors 

For bitcoin investors, the big story of 2024 was the approval of the first spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S. This contributed to broader investor and institutional adoption. In 2025—with a new SEC chairperson—we could see more altcoin ETFs or multi-crypto ETFs. This will further help grow crypto as an asset class—even though bitcoin will likely remain the coin of choice for large asset allocators. (To compare Canadian crypto ETFs, check the MoneySense ETF screener.)

Corporations holding bitcoin 

Over the past couple of years, the story of BTC has been dominated by the move from individual holders to corporations and countries. This trend will likely continue into 2025. As of mid-December 2024, bitcoin is held by over 40 publicly traded companies globally, of which 14 are Canadian. If corporations continue to add BTC to their balance sheets, that’s a bullish sign. The table below breaks down what types of non-individual entities currently hold BTC and how much.

How long will this bitcoin bull market last? 

No one knows. But unlike the past few BTC bull markets—2013, 2017 and 2021—BTC is not a fringe asset anymore. It’s survived many near-death experiences and has come back stronger each time. With the launch of bitcoin ETFs in Canada and the U.S., the cryptocurrency is part of mainstream and institutional asset allocation. 

So, the question—generally speaking—is not whether BTC is a valid investment. Rather, when is the right time to buy? Although BTC has a lot going for it in 2025, will institutional investors think it’s the right time to enter the market, or will they decide to wait for a correction or crash? 

Furthermore, BTC is extremely volatile—with 30% corrections par for the course, and 80% bear markets every three to four years. Given BTC’s volatility, for most investors, it may not be appropriate as their core investment. Rather, it could be a satellite play in their portfolio, with allocations of 3% to 10%, depending on an investor’s risk appetite.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are speculative assets. Although they are currently in a multi-year bull market, the tide could always turn against you when you least expect it. So, investors should exercise caution and only consider crypto if it aligns with their financial goals, time horizon and risk profile. As always, invest only as much money as you’re willing to lose.

More about crypto:

• How to invest tax-free in a bitcoin ETF in Canada
• Price of bitcoin hits new high after Trump victory, and more crypto news
• Mission digital: How Coinbase is reshaping Canada’s crypto landscape
• How to protect your crypto from hacks

About Aditya Nain

Aditya Nain is an author, speaker and educator who writes about Canadian investments, personal finance and crypto. He has co-authored two books and taught at universities for 12 years.

Linkedin Twitter Website