How to double your CPP income
New analysis from the National Institute on Ageing makes a strong case for delaying Canada Pension Plan payments to age 70. Does everyone else agree?
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New analysis from the National Institute on Ageing makes a strong case for delaying Canada Pension Plan payments to age 70. Does everyone else agree?
A series of academic papers being rolled out by the National Institute on Ageing (NIA) has added fuel to the oft-argued case for delaying benefits for the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) to the latest possible age: 70.
As I reported on my own site, when an introduction and overview was released on April 11, the delayed-gratification strategy can more than double ultimate monthly benefits: in fact they may be a whopping 2.2 times more when started at 70 compared to the opposite tactic of taking them as early possible at age 60. Similar dynamics are at play with Old Age Security, but less dramatic because the earliest you can take OAS is the traditional retirement age of 65.
This month’s Retired Money column looks in more detail at two related benefits from postponing CPP as late as possible: it provides a greater hedge against continued inflation, and provides an annuity-like longevity hedge against outliving your money. These two are intimately linked, of course, since the longer you live, the more pernicious long-term inflation is likely to be.
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You’ll probably see much more press on this as the NIA is releasing a paper on this topic each month between May and December. May 8 will be general education on the Canadian retirement income system while July 17 will explain the mechanics of delaying CPP (and QPP) benefits. The lead author is Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald, PhD, FCIA, FSA, director of financial security research for the NIA at Toronto Metropolitan University. She is assisted by three contributors.
After I wrote about the NIA’s introductory papers, respondents to my post told me they’d never seen the precise 2.2 times figure before. No surprise there, as this seems to be news to many Canadians, despite being a staple of media personal finance articles, often promulgated by financial advisors. The NIA cites a 2018 Government of Canada poll that found an amazing two thirds of us didn’t understand that the longer you wait, the higher the CPP payout. Therefore, most Canadian retirees take CPP long before they turn 70.
While seemingly irrational, this is just human nature, says York University finance professor Moshe Milevsky. The author of multiple personal finance books doesn’t blame the common pre-retiree mindset that they’ll take benefits as soon as possible. He articulates the typical reasoning as some version of “Yeah, I can wait eight years and get so much more from this government faucet, but hopefully it doesn’t go down another drain.”
The so-called “surprise” at how much more one can get from CPP by waiting is 40% driven by government mispricing and 60% driven by consumer financial illiteracy, explains Milevsky. “Also, one thing nobody seems to account for is the ever-changing tax rules & rates … and how that uncertainty makes any long-term financial planning quite risky.”
Long a proponent of “longevity insurance”—aka annuities—Milevsky says “delaying CPP is the best ‘annuity-buying strategy’ you can implement. Everything else is just Plan B.” (He’s currently writing a book titled A Babylonian Centenarian & the True Story of the Oldest Biblical Annuity.)
Long-time retirement expert Malcolm Hamilton, now retired from Mercer, says the 2.2x bump is “mildly misleading.” While technically correct, the way it’s presented is an invitation to misinterpret, he tells me in a telephone interview. It shouldn’t be interpreted as being twice as valuable: “To a large extent if you’re getting twice as much a year for half as many years, it’s not like the huge gangbuster gain that people will assume.” Someone collecting CPP at 70 who dies at 80 receives 10 years’ fewer benefits, relative to someone who starts collecting CPP at 60. The increase for deferring and reduction factors calculated by Ottawa’s chief actuary are supposed to be financially neutral for CPP, Hamilton says. “Bonnie’s conclusion is correct: it is often advantageous to defer, but only for those who can afford to defer … and who are in good health with normal life expectancies.”
This phenomenon occurred because Ottawa’s calculation of the adjustment factors for both CPP and OAS were “bungled,” Hamilton tells me. “They were and are too high … if it’s proven to be better for everyone to defer, then how can it be cost neutral?”
According to the NIA’s survey, 60% of Canadians cannot get by without their CPP benefits. If true, Hamilton says, “most Canadians have no viable option to defer, yet the commentary leaves the impression that all Canadians should consider this option and that most should take it.”
To these points, MacDonald responded via email that the adjustments are “not cost neutral (not that this matters to the individual). It’s a great deal for people seeking greater financial security; which is, according to our survey, the number one financial priority of ageing Canadians.” The majority of Canadians can afford to defer benefits, she says, “and they can defer without disrupting their lifestyles.” Most can defer by self-funding during the delay period (typically by drawing down registered retirement savings plans (RRSPs) between 65 and 70). “Everyone says CPP/QPP is critical and my argument is that they do need—and are going to need—more of it.”
MacDonald clarifies she didn’t say the deferred CPP is twice as valuable: “It’s double the pension.” Someone with average life expectancy and median CPP benefits will receive 50% more over their lifetime ($100,000) in today’s dollars, “So, it’s 50% more value in expected ‘return.’ It also takes the financial risks (longevity, inflation, and investment) off the table, so the person is getting higher expected return (50% higher over their lifetime) and lower risk.” (Her emphasis throughout.)
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Unless you already have the lifelong income you need, your future self will pay the price of having inadequate lifelong, secure monthly income, MacDonald adds. That price includes worrying about money and inflation, outliving savings and running out of money when you’re the most physically and mentally vulnerable.
Another author and pension/annuity expert, Fred Vettese, traditionally recommends waiting till age 70 for CPP. Although in recent years, he’s backed off a year or two because of Ottawa’s recent inflation-indexing adjustments. But he’s still enthusiastic about the deferral strategy: “The chances of being a winner by delaying far outweigh the chances of losing out.”
Vettese says the extra CPP one gets at 70 versus 65 is not necessarily just 42% more. “It can be closer to 50% more. This is because CPP rises with wage inflation before you start payments but only with price inflation after that.” He still believes some RRSP assets otherwise destined for registered retirement income funds (RRIFs) should be annuitized, but he’s less enthused about annuities because of rising inflation, as mentioned in an earlier column this year.
Senior financial planner Matthew Ardrey also believes there is “a significant benefit to deferring CPP where one can.” Ardrey, a portfolio manager at Toronto-based TriDelta Private Wealth, says he can recall a time when the consensus seemed to be the opposite: taking CPP at age 60. “ ‘A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush’ was the thinking.” But that out-of-date truism needs a rethink because of increasingly punitive discounts for taking CPP early and better enhancements for delaying. “Though these new rules have been in place for more than a decade, it is surprising the number of people who still think that taking CPP early is the right financial decision.”
While taking it early may be right for those with impaired life expectancy, or those who simply don’t have enough financial resources to make ends meet in the here and now, Ardrey says that “for the vast majority of Canadians, taking CPP at 60 is the wrong financial decision.” The breakeven from waiting from age 60 to 65 is between ages 73 and 74, which means that if you live to 74, you’re better off waiting.
If you defer to 70, the breakeven age is 81. For a 60-year-old, the average life expectancy for men is 85.8 years, and for women it’s 88.5. So “there is substantial CPP being left on the table if you take it earlier than age 70. The maximum benefit in 2024 is $16,375. This benefit is reduced to $10,480 at 60 and enhanced to $23,253 by deferring to age 70. The age 70 payment is 2.22 times larger than the age 60 payment. The breakeven for 60 versus 70 is just after age 77. And by the time a person reaches age 85, they would have almost $100,000 more in CPP received by deferring.”
As longevity continues to rise, Ardrey’s financial plans now extend out to age 95 rather than 90. That extra time also raises the risk of outliving one’s money. Like most DB pensions, CPP is “an annuity and an indexed annuity at that,” Ardrey says, “This helps protect the purchasing power of this income stream through retirement. Many people wish they had an indexed DB [defined benefit] pension and in fact we all do. It is the CPP.”
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1) working class men aren’t likely to live long enough to appreciate the increase and
2) if the current government gets “re-elected” again, look for them to legislate it back into General Revenue, especially in the light of an “emergency” created by their own policies, to whit: buying up mortgage bonds with borrowed funds into a real estate bubble.
I personally started taking my cpp at 60 and my oas at 65,and invested every penny, today I am years ahead of the government,or what would get after 70,
What really burns me about MY cpp,this is personal , If I add up my life time contributions and my employer s contributions, and had it invested equal to the TMX for 47 years ,I would have more than $600000. in the pot, I know I will never get a third off that out off our government, which I believe is totally wrong,
I personally believe what need s to be done is start teaching financial planning at age 13 or grade 9,instead off some other use less political B S in high school ,cause gov doesn’t really do a whole lot for us
When calculating the “break even” age for taking CPP at age 60 as opposed to 70, the calculation must make use of an assumed interest/discount rate. Obviously, if you took CPP 10 years early and invested it at a 10% return, you would have more than 2.2 times your money by age 70 and would be better off. What rate did these researchers use in their calculations?
How much CPP should you get starting age 70 and have contributed since 1981?
When I turned 60 years I contemplated applying for CPP. I requested a statement to review what my contributions had been over my years of employment.
I felt that early withdrawl may reduce my benefits but
financial concerns made it feasible to use CPP for expences.
I started to take CPP at age 61, calculating that I would receive full payback of my contributions to the CPP by age 67.
As it turned out I continued in my trade till age 69….continuing to pay CPP until retiring.
I have recouped all my pension contributions & had less stress with the extra income.
This method worked well for me but everyone should look at their options before following my decision.
Best of luck with your future.
That doesn’t take into account that if you’re lower income, your GIS will be reduced significantly by your higher CPP/QPP payments.
Hey there, with the average Senior getting 738.00$ for CPP payments, & the average couple living to about 85. The I figured taking CPP at 63 to 65 is best. At 85 I will probably be close to death in a wheel chair wearing diapers. Due to a very rare blood disorder and resultant mistreatment by doctors my expectations are limited. Divorce is a way to maximize OAS and CPP as I pay 1850.$ support to my ex and thus less income tax as income is split. We both live at same address, but are technically apart. We were hoping to get income splitting under Harper government, but the Liberals stopped that. CPP premiums since 1997 have sky rocketed, but payments to seniors have not grown substantially. The transfers of premium overages has allowed huge growth of CPPINVESTMENTS aka CPPIB. They need to start paying more CPP to recipients.
Why don’t you ever speak about CPP Disability income ? As to how poor it is and if there is any extra help for people on it ? As a 1000.00 a month to live on is below poverty and yet NO ONE SEEM TO CARE OR COME TO HELP THESE PEOPLE OUT ! As your on it till you hit 65 and then it switches over to CPP OLD AGE PENSION! But you have no help with your income while on the disability or never get much increases from the government!! Why I like to know as who can live on 1000 a month does not even cover rent or bills and they wonder why people are homeless!!!!!