How high will interest rates go in Canada? Could they reach double digits?

Thankfully, yes, it is. Inflation fell to 2.8% in June, within the BoC’s target band of 1% to 3%, but ultimately the central bank would like it to reach 2%. And it may be too early to celebrate, because certain goods, such as groceries, remain stubbornly expensive (grocery prices were up 9.1% year-over-year in June), and gas inflation is down (prices fell 21.6% year-over-year in June) simply because prices were so high last year.  

How much more financial pain lies ahead? How high could interest rates go in Canada? 

The impact of BoC rate hikes so far

When the BoC increases or decreases its interest rate, the banks follow suit. This significantly impacts our financial lives—positively for savers and negatively for debt holders. If you’re a saver, you could benefit from rates on guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) that are currently above 5%. On the other hand, if you’re a mortgage holder, you’ve probably seen or will see your mortgage payments go up. The discounted 5-year fixed mortgage rate jumped from under 1.5% in December 2020 to above 5% in July 2023—a whopping increase of well over 200%. That comes out to a monthly payment increase of around $1,000 on a $500,000 mortgage. 

Why it’s tough to make interest rate predictions for Canada

Interest rate predictions are notoriously tricky, because global events—which are always unpredictable—also affect Canada. But generally speaking, inflation and interest rates are cyclical. So, at some point, we should see rates climb back down. Craig Wright, chief economist at RBC, believes that while we may see more rate increases, “zero more hikes are needed” right now. In fact, more hikes may needlessly damage the economy, he says.

But, according to the BoC, Canadians may need to be patient, because economic demand is high, the labour market remains strong and the housing market has picked up. In central-bank-speak, be prepared for the possibility of more rate hikes. 

According to Andrew Grantham, executive director of economics at CIBC Capital Markets, “There is a risk of one more 25 [basis point] hike in Q3 this year because… some of the core measures that the Bank prefers still suggest that underlying price pressures are rising at a pace above their target band.” 

While the BoC’s commentary and economic forecasts are useful in understanding the state of the economy, it may be prudent not to base financial decisions solely on them, because economic surprises are par for the course. This is evident from recent history as inflation—which was a result of very low COVID-time interest rates—has been more persistent than the BoC initially anticipated. Similarly, some economists believed the rate hikes of December 2022 and January 2023 would be the last ones for this cycle—which they weren’t. 

In economies with an independent central bank—like Canada—experts don’t always agree with the bank’s rate decisions; central banks are inclined to keep the door open to future rate hikes, even as businesses and residents hope for stable or lower rates. This can lead economists to erroneously forecast the end of a rate hike cycle earlier than it actually happens. Could that be the case this time?  

Could we return to 1980s-level inflation in Canada?

High inflation over the past year has led some people to wonder whether we’re in for a repeat of the 1980s, when inflation reached about 12.5% in 1981. That year, the BoC’s benchmark rate inched above 20%, and the prime rate neared 23%. How high were mortgage rates? Above 21% in late 1981. But can we realistically revisit those inflation and interest rate heights? 

The inflation of the 1980s was caused by a heady mix of factors: rising oil prices as a result of the energy crises of the 1970s, increased government spending, and relaxed monetary policy in pursuit of full employment through the 1960s and ’70s. The pursuit of economic growth and full employment led to higher wages, which further exacerbated the inflation crisis. Additionally, the Bretton Woods monetary system (instituted by dozens of countries, including Canada, at the end of the Second World War) had collapsed in the early 1970s, leading to the U.S. dollar being unpegged from gold. This led to increased monetary supply—which contributed to rising inflation. 

Thankfully, according to some experts, comparisons between the current environment and the 1980s might be overdone, because there are fundamental differences between the two periods. One such key difference is inflation targeting. Unlike in the 1980s, the BoC and other central banks now frame policy with the primary aim of maintaining a target inflation rate rather than promoting full employment, which leads to increased inflation. “We’re not revisiting the 1980s,” Wright says, in no small part because “Inflation targeting has been a great success story around the world. [Over the years] major global economies have moved to targeting.”

Wright notes that a “moderate recession is expected in the second half of [2023],” and while recessions may be painful, “If you look at history, one of the foolproof ways of getting inflation down is having a recession.” This view is echoed by Grantham. “There are a number of differences between the current economic situation and that of the 1980s,” he says, “but an important one is that businesses and households still on average believe that inflation will return to 2% over time.”

Both Wright and Grantham stress that the high inflation of the 1980s was—at least partially—a result of heightened inflation expectations. If inflation is expected to be high, then businesses and households behave in a way that fulfills this prophecy. Inflation targeting, which the BoC first implemented in 1991, mitigates this risk, because economic actors believe rates will continue to rise until the target of 2% inflation is met. 

Global headwinds that could make inflation worse in Canada

The war in Ukraine, extreme weather events and a resurgent Chinese economy are global events and trends that could lead to stickier inflation in Canada. Wright believes that some future inflationary pressure could come from de-globalization, challenging demographic trends, and potential regulatory or tax changes that support a global move to net-zero emissions.

Another factor that could contribute to high inflation is the rising price of food and other goods, which could result from “supply chain disruptions emanating from the Russia/Ukraine war” and “extreme weather events [which] appear to be becoming more common,” notes Grantham. Finally, a “re-acceleration in Chinese economic growth, which has disappointed recently, could also result in higher inflation particularly through metals and energy prices.”

Is the BoC’s target inflation rate of 2% still achievable—or even desirable?

In June 2022—when inflation peaked at 8.1% in Canada—there was some debate on whether the BoC should increase its inflation target. However, the issue feels less relevant now, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) already down to 2.8%. Wright believes that the 1% to 3% target band need not be altered, even though achieving it won’t be as easy as in the previous decade. He also points out that the inflation target is set for five-year periods—the current target being for 2022 to 2026—allowing for future changes based on economic conditions.

Interest rates could remain higher than in the last decade to meet the target inflation rate. In addition, the BoC would have to consider its credibility if it alters the target rate. As Grantham notes, “Changing the target now following such a big spike in inflation would risk the Bank of Canada losing the credibility that it has built up over a number of decades.” And Wright points out another risk: “If the BoC raises the target band to 3% to 5% now, they may have to raise it to 4% to 6% if inflation rises.” This approach would be arbitrary and would erode the BoC’s reputation.

For a decade, Canadians were accustomed to low inflation and interest rates, making the current inflationary environment all the more difficult to deal with. While we may have to say goodbye to 1% interest rates, all is not lost. Although risks remain, slowly but surely, inflationary pressures seem to be subsiding. 

More about interest rates in Canada:

• What fast-rising interest, inflation and bond rates mean for investors
• The one inflation tool you need for your finances
• What do high interest rates mean for retirement savings?
• How recession fears are shaping investor behaviour and emotions

About Aditya Nain

Aditya Nain is an author, speaker and educator who writes about Canadian investments, personal finance and crypto. He has co-authored two books and taught at universities for 12 years.

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