What does Nvidia’s stock split mean for Canadian investors?
Buy it? Sell it? Not sure what to do? There’s lots to think about, especially since the stock split. Here’s one opinion.
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Buy it? Sell it? Not sure what to do? There’s lots to think about, especially since the stock split. Here’s one opinion.
“Should I be buying that artificial intelligence (AI) company, the one that’s done the stock split?” It’s a question I received from a number of Canadian investors in the week leading up to Nvidia’s 10-for-1 stock split on June 10. Many didn’t even know the name of the company or what it does. They just heard the share price was going to drop from about $1,200 to about $120. (All figures are in U.S. dollars.) That must be a great deal, right?
In fact, it’s not a deal. At all. Stock splits sound great. After all, shareholders will get nine additional shares for every one they already own. However, when you evaluate your holdings in your portfolio, those extra shares don’t change anything. Whether you have 10 shares at $120 each or one share at $1,200, the value remains the same.
Psychologically, people like to own more shares of a quality company—that’s the attraction. A lower price misleads people to assume they are getting better value when in fact they’re not.
In my column this month, I’ll explain the buzz around Nvidia, its stock split and what I think Canadian investors could focus on.
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U.S.-based Nvidia has been around since 1993. At that time, it was focused on developing 3D graphics for the gaming and multimedia markets. Six years later, it invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a game changer for computers, excuse the pun. Nvidia entered the world of AI in 2012, and today it engineers the most advanced semiconductor chips, systems and software for companies that want to integrate AI into operations. More companies are doing just that, as they aim to reap the benefits of the generative AI boom.
The result: Nvidia continues to set earnings record after earnings record each quarter. In 2023, its stock price surged more than 230%. So far this year, its shares are up about 140%. In a growing list of major milestones, the tech company just briefly became the world’s second-largest company by market capitalization after Microsoft. It is now worth more than $3 trillion.
A stock split is a corporate action that divides existing shares, creating more shares but with no increase in total value. For instance, if you buy 100 shares of a $50 stock for $5,000 and the stock is split two-for-one, you will now own 200 shares, each trading for $25, for a total value of $5,000. Stock splits make stocks more affordable by lowering the minimum investment.
Read more in the MoneySense glossary: “What is a stock split?”
First, a stock split occurs when a company increases the number of its shares to boost liquidity and make its shares more affordable for investors. As I noted above, while there may be more shares available, the underlying value of those shares does not change. Net-net, you are no further ahead after a stock split. Yet, some individual investors tend to gravitate toward companies doing stock splits, especially high-profile companies such as Nvidia.
If you’re limited on cash, this is an opportunity to buy Nvidia at $120 a share instead of the $1,200 pre-split price, which means you can afford to buy more shares. But it’s not presenting a new buying opportunity, because opportunity is based on valuation.
People get confused because they see the cheaper price, but the stock isn’t cheaper—its valuation didn’t change. At the time of writing, Nvidia was trading at 42 times forward earnings—the second-highest of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, according to The Globe and Mail.
While price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is one popular way to assess value, I look beyond current earnings to the price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio when I evaluate a stock.
Stock price is the price of the shares, of course. However, it does not tell you if the stock has good value. To know if a stock has good value, I believe it’s important to understand what the company does or makes, to know its share price and earnings and its potential. That’s what I do.
And I look for answers to the following questions:
These answers can help determine if the stock may represent a good buying opportunity.
At writing time, Nvidia’s earnings are beating expectations and setting records. It reported first-quarter revenue of $26 billion, up nearly 20% from the previous quarter and 262% from a year ago.
But you have to take that with a grain of salt, because that kind of growth is not sustainable.
Nvidia has been a good company with strong niches for its products for a long time, and I think it will continue to be a good company. But a company can only consistently double or triple earnings for so long. It eventually peaks.
I see Nvidia as being at the top of the heap right now. While I don’t think it’s going to fall any time soon, know that when you are at the top, there is only one direction to go. There will come a time when Nvidia is not going to earn as much or grow as much. It’s unrealistic to expect that it can keep having such strong growth. The pace of growth will likely ebb and flow, as it does with most companies, over time. That’s not to say Nvidia’s going to lose money, but a slowdown in growth will cause the its share price to drop. For this reason, I am not going to buy more right now. Instead, I’ve been selling it in small pieces as it has gone up in price, taking some of the profits off the table. As a risk manager, I think that’s the right thing to do.
For Canadian investors looking to buy, be analytic. Price is just one factor to consider. Take a close look at PEG ratio, your portfolio as a whole, and how the investment fits with your asset allocation, risk tolerance and goals.
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