Where to buy real estate in Canada 2021: Simcoe

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City	Postal FSA	Neighbourhood name	Overall rank	Avg price 2020	1-year growth	3-year growth	5-year growth	Value score (out of 5 stars)	Neighbourhood economics score (out of 5 stars)	Neighbourhood accessibility score (out of 5 stars)	% Households with Children
Oro-Medonte	L0L	Sugarbush	1	$641,385	10%	28%	96%	2.9	5.0	0.3	44%
Innisfill	L9S	Sandy Cove Acres	2	$199,994	8%	1%	82%	4.7	3.1	2.5	47%
Clearview	L0M	Creemore	3	$712,492	67%	52%	900%	5.0	2.8	0.3	46%
Oro-Medonte	L0L	Horseshoe Valley	4	$774,038	16%	26%	59%	2.3	5.0	0.3	44%
New Tecumseth	L0G	Rural New Tecumseth	5	$757,154	13%	46%	157%	2.6	4.6	2.4	49%
Oro-Medonte	L0L	Oro Station	6	$748,380	8%	19%	63%	2.1	5.0	0.3	44%
Tay	L0K	Rural Tay	7	$505,169	23%	56%	117%	4.3	2.8	0.5	33%
Oro-Medonte	L0L	Rural Oro	8	$954,307	35%	36%	54%	1.9	5.0	0.3	44%
Oro-Medonte	L0L	Hawkestone	9	$792,668	7%	18%	56%	1.9	5.0	0.3	44%
Ramara	L0K	Lagoon City	10	$567,486	15%	64%	105%	3.8	2.8	0.5	33%
Essa	L0M	Angus	11	$552,557	16%	23%	355%	3.7	2.8	0.3	46%
Collingwood	L9Y	Collingwood	12	$530,420	29%	38%	85%	4.0	2.2	2.6	31%
Severn	L0K	Washago	13	$570,409	11%	36%	80%	3.3	2.8	0.5	33%
Innisfill	L9S	Alcona	14	$637,587	19%	19%	76%	3.0	3.1	2.5	47%
Ramara	L0K	Rural Ramara	15	$646,468	19%	35%	194%	3.2	2.8	0.5	33%
Barrie	L4N	Sunnidale	16	$549,912	18%	29%	186%	3.6	2.3	2.1	49%
Oro-Medonte	L0K	Moonstone	17	$675,170	28%	28%	84%	3.1	2.8	0.5	33%
Penetanguishene	L9M	West of Main Street	18	$548,307	42%	15%	268%	4.1	1.7	0.2	33%
Barrie	L4N	West	19	$548,142	12%	23%	281%	3.5	2.3	2.1	49%
Barrie	L4N	Lakeshore	20	$517,968	13%	18%	142%	3.5	2.3	2.1	49%
Barrie	L4N	Ardagh	21	$566,833	21%	17%	176%	3.5	2.3	2.1	49%
Oro-Medonte	L0K	Warminster	22	$703,042	15%	48%	139%	3.0	2.8	0.5	33%
Barrie	L4N	Holly	23	$570,909	21%	21%	119%	3.4	2.3	2.1	49%
Wasaga Beach	L9Z	Wasaga Beach	24	$567,518	17%	31%	80%	3.4	2.1	0.6	28%
Barrie	L4N	Painswick	25	$566,235	15%	21%	23%	3.2	2.3	2.1	49%
Penetanguishene	L9M	East of Main Street	26	$523,443	23%	27%	99%	3.8	1.7	0.2	33%
Bradford/west gwillibury	L3Z	Bradford	27	$783,723	19%	35%	70%	2.4	3.0	4.2	55%
Ramara	L3V	Joyland Beach	28	$518,985	26%	85%	100%	4.6	0.7	0.3	35%
Oro-Medonte	L0L	Shanty Bay	29	$1,175,209	17%	18%	-51%	0.0	5.0	0.3	44%
Ramara	L0K	Bayshore Village	30	$848,107	25%	27%	102%	2.2	2.8	0.5	33%
Barrie	L4M	City Centre	31	$494,849	15%	20%	65%	3.6	1.3	2.4	41%
Tiny	L9M	Rural Tiny	32	$630,176	11%	45%	78%	3.1	1.7	0.2	33%
Barrie	L4N	Innishore	33	$700,545	10%	16%	59%	2.4	2.3	2.1	49%
Barrie	L4M	East	34	$587,729	20%	26%	109%	3.4	1.3	2.4	41%
Barrie	L4M	North	35	$549,627	13%	19%	51%	3.2	1.3	2.4	41%
Essa	L0M	Utopia	36	$822,188	4%	-3%	487%	1.8	2.8	0.3	46%
Ramara	L3V	Atherley	37	$720,519	39%	61%	98%	3.6	0.7	0.3	35%
MD-Midland	L4R	West of King Street	38	$463,448	13%	33%	177%	4.0	0.0	0.0	34%
Orillia	L3V	East Ward	39	$327,571	-25%	4%	0%	3.2	0.7	0.3	35%
Orillia	L3V	West Ward	40	$231,628	-39%	-30%	0%	3.0	0.7	0.3	35%
Innisfill	L9S	Big Bay Point	41	$865,800	-22%	19%	-71%	0.7	3.1	2.5	47%
Orillia	L3V	North Ward	42	$292,718	-31%	-28%	0%	2.9	0.7	0.3	35%
Orillia	L3V	Westridge	43	$295,777	-38%	-26%	0%	2.7	0.7	0.3	35%
Ramara	L3V	Valharbour	44	$566,500	8%	-34%	22%	2.4	0.7	0.3	35%

Value: Measures how affordable the neighbourhood is compared to the surrounding area and the region overall
Momentum: Measures how quickly prices are appreciating in this neighbourhood, with an emphasis on long term appreciation

For more, please see our complete methodology

Located north of the GTA, Simcoe is part of the Golden Horseshoe and is divided primarily into two areas. South Simcoe is the higher-income, more densely populated area closer to the GTA, while North Simcoe is more sparsely populated, remote, and has a more modest economic status. The two main cities associated with Simcoe are Barrie and Orillia, and they are both located in the northern part of the region.

Why we’re watching Simcoe

Simcoe offers an opportunity for buyers to enjoy affordable small-town living, with access to beaches, forests and green space, with urban amenities nearby.

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The area has a median household income of $76,489, according to the 2016 Statistics Canada Census, with a population of 479,650 sprawling over 4,859 square kilometres. The primary industries include manufacturing, agriculture and tourism. For house-hunters, Simcoe offers affordable suburban or rural living with easy access to nature, highways and moderately sized surrounding cities.

Pre-COVID real estate market

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, it was possible to purchase a home in Simcoe for an average cost of $657,945, which is about one-third less than the average cost of a home in the City of Toronto. Detached homes are plentiful in this region and could be purchased for an average price of $689,699. Semi-detached homes and condos are less common but still available in urbanized areas like Barrie and Orillia, and purchased for an average cost of $536,192 and $387,983, respectively.

Impact of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic did have a minor impact on real estate prices in Simcoe, but less so than other areas because prices in this region were not overly inflated beforehand. The introduction of public health regulations caused a minor dip in real estate prices in 2020, with the average cost of a home dropping 3% in April 2020 to $634,731. Fortunately, the industry quickly rebounded, and prices recovered to February 2020 levels by June of the same year.

Future outlook

Looking forward, we expect home values in the Simcoe region to continue their steady march upwards. While Simcoe has a lower volume of real estate activity when compared to others, all indicators still point overwhelmingly to a seller’s market. Pricing was up in March 2021 by 2% month over month, to an average of $924,585, and 588 transactions took place, a record-breaking number. The average new listing in Simcoe spends only seven days on the market. Generally, a large number days on the market indicate a buyer’s market, and a low number indicates a seller’s market with a serious interest in new listings. This sentiment is further bolstered by the region’s 70% sales to new listings ratio (SNLR). Typically, a SNLR between 40% and 60% is considered a balanced market, and SNLR above 60% favours sellers. Buying in Simcoe is still a good idea, but be prepared to compete with other buyers for properties.

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Simcoe neighbourhoods

Sugarbush

If you’re looking for a renewed connection to nature, there’s no better place to buy than Sugarbush in Oro-Medonte. Surrounded by incredible hiking, skiing and biking trails, with the Bass Lake Provincial Park nearby, Sugarbush is the perfect spot to nurture an outdoorsy lifestyle. Living in Sugarbush, you’ll find yourself needing a car to complete your everyday errands. The closest grocery store is a 10-minute drive away, and kids can expect to take a bus to school in one of the neighbouring towns. Barrie and Orillia are the closest regional centres, about a 30-minute drive away. If you’re considering commuting to downtown Toronto, you may want to look elsewhere, since it can take up to two hours to travel one-way during rush hour. If you’re permanently working from home, or on a reduced in-office schedule, the drive may be doable. It’s a relatively new neighbourhood, with construction taking place mostly within the last 30 years. New construction is still happening in the town, giving residents the opportunity to create their own estate homes on either acre or half-acre lots—a rare option in smaller, rural communities. Sugarbush is the most affordable community in Oro-Medonte, offering the chance to experience the area’s unique lifestyle at a lower cost. However, the small market is competitive. Buyers who have their eye on Sugarbush may need to wait for the right property to come on the market, which can lead to competitive bidding for the area’s limited inventory. As a result, pricing in the area has increased by 96% in the last five years. This trajectory wasn’t stopped by the pandemic either, with increasing interest in suburban and small-town living driving people out of the city. Over the last year, pricing in Sugarbush grew by 10%, to an average price of $641,385. “Even as things begin to go back to normal, the affordability in Sugarbush compared to nearby communities will continue to make this a wise place to buy real estate,” explains local real estate agent Allyson Neves. “It’s a great region for families wanting more room and a quieter pace of life. If you’re not tied to the big city for work, calling Sugarbush home might be the perfect option.”

Creemore

You may be most familiar with Creemore from the label on your beer can, but the small town in Clearview Township has plenty more to offer. Its name comes from the Gaelic words “croí mór”, meaning “big heart” and that describes the small-town community well. The historical town has become a local destination over the last few years, with the renowned Creemore Brewery bringing tourism to the area, and the Blue Mountains just a 30-minute drive away. Residents of Creemore get to enjoy the best that small-town Ontario has to offer, including summer festivals, quaint shops, local restaurants, a lavender farm and nearby nature preserves. Compared to our other top Simcoe Neighbourhoods, Creemore allows for a more walkable lifestyle, thanks to in-town amenities like a grocery store and elementary school. However, the area is still mostly suited to cars. Those commuting to work can reach Collingwood, Barrie, Orangeville or Orillia in an hour or less, but expect a trip to downtown Toronto to take up to two hours. Creemore’s reinvention from a sleepy small town into a local destination has been making positive impacts on the local real estate market for a while, with prices growing a staggering 900% in the last five years. Despite the challenges brought by the pandemic, Creemore real estate stayed strong, in no small part due to the properties meeting buyers’ newfound desires for wide-open spaces and larger homes. In 2020, real estate prices grew 67% to an average price of $712,492—making it one of the top 15 most expensive markets in all of Simcoe County. Large, newly-constructed estate homes are in high demand, and the town has planned expansion for a new subdivision in the northeast end of the community is set to help meet that. The most significant price increases seen recently in Creemore have been as a result of the town’s revitalization, not exclusively evolving pandemic preferences. With that in mind, we anticipate that the demand for real estate in the area will remain high in the coming years, regardless of how the pandemic continues to change buying preferences.

Horseshoe Valley

Horseshoe Valley is a charming village set in the foothills of some of Oro-Medonte’s best ski resorts. Those searching for an active lifestyle can enjoy hiking and biking trails and downhill skiing right in their own backyard. Horseshoe Valley’s unique resort-side lifestyle has prompted a large stock of condos, not typical to small towns. These condos provide housing options and opportunities for city-dwellers to invest in a secondary home by the slopes. The area has also seen increased demand from retirees and downsizers since single-level, low-maintenance homes can be hard to come by in other areas of the county. For those who want more space, there are still many detached homes on large lots to be found in the area. Pricing in Horseshoe Valley is higher than in some neighbouring communities, like Sugarbush, but remains firmly in the mid-range of all properties available in Oro-Medonte. The area has seen rising prices recently, with prices growing by 59% over the last five years. During the pandemic, prices grew another 16% to $774,038 as buyers looked for more space and secondary residences. “The unique lifestyle offered by Horseshoe Valley makes it stand out in the region. In a lot of ways, it’s Simcoe’s Collingwood,” explains Neves. “I expect that the area will continue to grow because of this unique, resort-style lifestyle that’s hard to find elsewhere.”

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