With greater supply, buyers won’t feel as compelled to offer on as many properties and may take a less aggressive approach when it comes to making an offer, knowing that more inventory is coming, notes Wacker. “Sellers likely won’t see as many offers as they have in the past few months, which could lead to a moderated price growth.”
Heading into the spring, Wacker anticipates market pressure will remain high. “Even with the expected interest rate hikes throughout the year from the Bank of Canada, immigration growth over the next few years—coupled with the lack of new supply—will keep pressure on the market in the city and outwards into the GTA,” he says.
While Toronto’s core saw an exodus during the pandemic, as working from home allowed people to move farther away from the city, things are changing, he says. “Now that many larger corporations and local governments are calling employees back to the office, commuting will factor into a buyer’s decision-making. We will likely see some rebalancing of essential requirements when it comes to a purchase as the pandemic continues to recede.”
Toronto’s future real estate outlook
In many parts of Canada, housing prices escalated towards the end of 2021, with the trend continuing into 2022. Low interest rates—which have begun to rise—as well as historically low inventory levels have created a seller’s market in many regions over the last few years—and Toronto is no exception.
The average price of a home in Toronto was $1,219,889 as of February 2022, up 22% year-over-year. For the first time, the average price of a detached house in the city breached the $2 million mark, sitting at $2,073,989. As of February 2022, the city was also seeing an uptake in sales—3,240 transactions were completed that month, up 44% from January 2022.
These numbers suggest that Toronto could be making a slow, steady move towards a more balanced market in the coming months. In February 2022, Toronto had a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 66%, down from 72% in January and from 122% in December 2021. Coupled with the increase in interest rates, we could see a move to a slightly more balanced market this spring.
Toronto’s top three neighbourhoods
1—Mildenhall
Located near the Rosedale Golf Club and surrounded by parks, Mildenhall is currently Toronto’s hottest neighbourhood. The average selling price of a home in Mildenhall reached $3,024,167 at the end of 2021. As of December of that year, prices were 74% higher than they were one year earlier, an impressive 113% higher than three years earlier and 100% higher than five years earlier. That contributes to its value score of 3.8 out of 5.
What makes the area so popular? There are a number of good public and private schools to choose from, and it offers a centralized location with a suburban feel—think large properties and spacious homes. That’s made it an attractive neighbourhood for families, with 42% of households in the area having children. It is also relatively walkable, with an accessibility rating of 2.9 out of 5—not bad for a suburban-style development. Mildenhall has a neighbourhood economics score of 4.7 out of 5, nearly at the top of the spectrum.